Graphic by Tania Lili
Graphic by Tania Lili

Michigan’s challenge as the curve flattens is addressing the fatality rate, which outpaces the national average. In Detroit, one in 10 sick residents don’t recover. 

MICHIGAN — Michigan may be past the peak of coronavirus, but a look at the total impact as the state approaches the two-month mark shows just how devastating the pandemic has been for residents. 

Data shows the progression of the pandemic has dramatically slowed in the past weeks, from a flood in early April to a just trickle in early May. 

Tuesday reported 447 new confirmed cases and 36 deaths, with an additional eight previously unreported deaths being added to the Michigan Disease Surveillance System. That compares to nearly 2,000 cases and over 200 deaths in the worst days of early April. 

READ MORE: CNN Report: Photos Show Horrific Scene Of Bodies Allegedly Piling Up In Detroit Hospital

But there’s a troubling statistic just behind those numbers. 

Michigan’s total deaths of 4,179 make up 9.4% of Michigan’s total 44,397 confirmed coronavirus cases. That number, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), is up from a steady 9.1% last week. As the New York Post notes, this is significantly higher than the national average and nearly a full percentage point higher than the next closest state. The ‘Gander calculated Connecticut, the second deadliest state, at a CFR of 8.5%.

The national CFR is significantly lower — only 5.8% according to The ‘Gander’s calculations. Nationally, there have been 1,181,885 diagnosed cases of the coronavirus and 69,079 deaths reports the USA Today

And Detroit’s CFR is even worse. Nearly 12% of Detroiters who were confirmed to have coronavirus have died.

RELATED: Detroit Is About To Hit A Grim Coronavirus Milestone

 New York, which has been described as a “horror”, with “disturbing” scenes in hospitals that nurses have travelled across the country to serve in has barely more than half the CFR of Detroit at 6.1%. 

Now a total of 19,645 New Yorkers have died. While that’s a much higher number than the number of coronavirus victims in Detroit, as a percentage of New York City’s 321,192 total cases New Yorkers are dying at a much lower rate than Detroiters. 

While The ‘Gander has previously noted that Michigan falling short of its testing goals does inflate the CFR, such a dramatic contrast between the state and national average leaves little room to doubt the virus is especially deadly here. As the overall spread of the virus begins to slow and the state assesses next steps to deal with the pandemic, addressing this extremely high CFR is the obvious next step.

And a model favored by the White House projects deaths will spike again. Soon.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine projects national coronavirus deaths will reach 134,000 by August, about double what the model was previously projecting. The reason those deaths will spike so dramatically is largely an overeagerness to get daily life back to normal and reopen sectors of the economy, reports Politico

SEE ALSO: How to Survive a Pandemic: Lessons from Detroit’s Black Women to the Nation

Michigan has been taking more actions to re-engage the economy at least in part because discontent and high-profile protests have made the state concerned that the public would be unwilling to endure longer coronavirus protections, though it has laid out a responsive and flexible plan called “MI Safe Start” that can respond to second waves like those this model projects.

Legislative Republicans and armed protesters are not nearly as patient in their approaches, despite Michigan being one of the farthest states from meeting the White House’s guidance for when states should be re-engaging their economies. . 

Against this backdrop Michigan held a wildly successful statewide election conducted largely through vote-by-mail efforts, The ‘Gander reports

According to the daily update from the state, the county-level breakdown is as follows:

  • Alcona: 4 (1 death)
  • Allegan: 120 (2 deaths)  
  • Alpena: 85 (7 deaths)
  • Antrim: 10 
  • Arenac:27 (1 death)  
  • Baraga: 1
  • Barry: 39 (1 death)
  • Bay: 162 (8 deaths)
  • Benzie: 4
  • Berrien: 315 (20 deaths)
  • Branch: 70 (2 deaths)
  • Calhoun: 246 (16 deaths)
  • Cass: 34 (2 deaths)
  • Charlevoix: 13 (1 death)
  • Cheboygan: 19 (1 death)
  • Chippewa: 2
  • Clare: 11 (2 deaths)
  • Clinton: 120 (10 deaths)
  • Crawford: 56 (4 death)
  • Delta: 13 (2 deaths)
  • Dickinson: 3 (2 deaths)
  • Eaton: 138 (6 deaths)
  • Emmet: 21 (2 deaths)
  • Genesee: 1,668 (200 deaths)
  • Gladwin: 14 (1 death)
  • Gogebic: 4 (1 death)
  • Grand Traverse: 20 (5 deaths)
  • Gratiot: 26 (2 deaths)
  • Hillsdale: 137 (21 deaths)
  • Houghton 2
  • Huron: 25 (1 death)
  • Ingham: 518 (14 deaths)
  • Ionia: 93 (2 deaths)
  • Iosco: 52 (7 deaths)
  • Isabella: 61 (7 deaths)
  • Jackson: 367 (26 deaths)
  • Kalamazoo: 489 (22 deaths)
  • Kalkaska: 17 (2 deaths)
  • Kent: 1,914 (30 deaths)
  • Lake: 2
  • Lapeer: 173 (27 deaths)
  • Leelanau: 9
  • Lenawee: 110 (2 deaths)
  • Livingston: 362 (20 deaths)
  • Luce: 1
  • Mackinac: 6
  • Macomb: 5,789 (647 deaths)
  • Manistee: 11
  • Marquette: 49 (8 deaths)
  • Mason:13
  • Mecosta: 14 (2 deaths)
  • Menominee: 6
  • Midland: 62 (7 deaths)
  • Missaukee: 16 (1 death)
  • Monroe: 327 (13 deaths)
  • Montcalm: 46 (1 death)
  • Montmorency: 5
  • Muskegon: 318 (18 deaths)
  • Newaygo: 31
  • Oakland: 7,522 (772 deaths)
  • Oceana: 21 (1 death)
  • Ogemaw: 15
  • Osceola: 8
  • Oscoda: 5 
  • Otsego: 94 (8 deaths)
  • Ottawa: 295 (12 deaths)
  • Presque Isle: 11
  • Roscommon: 18
  • Saginaw: 742 (70 deaths)
  • Sanilac: 36 (5 deaths)
  • Schoolcraft: 3
  • Shiawassee: 189 (12 deaths)
  • St Clair: 342 (21 deaths) 
  • St Joseph: 43 (1 death)
  • Tuscola: 117 (14 deaths)
  • Van Buren: 69 (2 deaths)
  • Washtenaw: 1,123 (76 deaths)
  • Wayne: 17,391 (1,945 deaths) (Detroit alone has 9,424 cases and 1,108 deaths)
  • Wexford: 9 (2 deaths)
  • Michigan Department of Corrections: 1,898 (48 deaths)
  • Federal Corrections Institute: 98 (2 deaths)
  • Out of State: 664

Total: 44,397 cases, 4,179 deaths