Senate poll shows McMorrow ahead, Stevens frontrunner status in doubt

A new independent poll shows US Rep. Haley Stevens’ perceived frontrunner status in this year’s Democratic primary for Michigan’s open US Senate seat in doubt.

Emerson College Polling in Boston released a poll on Jan. 29 showing 22.4% of likely Democratic primary voters favoring state Sen. Mallory McMorrow of Royal Oak, to 16.5% for Stevens, of Birmingham. Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed got 15.9% of the likely primary vote in the poll, with the rest of the respondents split between lesser-known candidates. More than a third — 37.9% — remained undecided.

The primary to determine the Democratic nominee will be held Aug. 4 of this year. The winner is expected to face former US Rep. Mike Rogers, a White Lake Republican who lost a race for US Senate to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2024. No well known Republicans have stepped up to challenge Rogers, who also has President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

“The first Emerson College survey of the race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters finds a close battle between the top three candidates, McMorrow, Stevens and El-Sayed,” said Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling’s executive director.

Emerson said in its release of the poll that the race for the Democratic nomination “remains wide open,” more than six months before the primary. For the poll, Emerson contacted 1,000 likely Michigan primary voters, 491 of whom said they expected to vote in the Democratic primary; the margin of error for that Democratic subset was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for any of the results, meaning, if the poll is statistically accurate, in some scenarios Stevens, or El-Sayed, could be ahead, though McMorrow appears to have a slight lead overall.

For the poll, Emerson also used text messages to cellphones to contact likely voters, as well as an online panel, which could potentially have an impact on the result.

But with little independent polling having been done in the race, which could help determine which party controls the Senate next year, it is clearly good news for McMorrow’s campaign, given that Stevens has been perceived as the frontrunner. Stevens has been a member of Congress since 2018, having flipped what had been a Republican district in Oakland County and is a strong campaigner who has close relationships with mainstream Democrats. Stevens has also fared slightly better than the others in the few polls done in the race.

McMorrow, meanwhile, has built a national image after flipping what had been a Republican district in Oakland County in 2018 and later, in April 2022, for a fiery five-minute response to a Republican Senate colleague, Lana Theis of Brighton, who said Democrats wanted to “groom and sexualize kindergartners” and teach children that “8-year-olds are responsible for slavery.” McMorrow’s response went viral as she noted she is a mother herself: “I am the biggest threat to your hollow, hateful scheme,” she said at the time. “Because you can’t claim that you are targeting marginalized kids in the name of ‘parental rights’ if another parent is standing up to say no.”

McMorrow has been a regular figure on cable news ever since.

The Emerson poll did not appear to ask Republican voters about their primary choice, given that Rogers is seen as the likely winner. It did, however, test which Democrat of the three best-known candidates might fare best against him in the general election in November. It showed Stevens strongest at 47% to Rogers’ 42%, with 11% undecided. McMorrow led Rogers 46%-43% and 12% undecided and El-Sayed, who is seen as the most progressive candidate in the race, trailed Rogers ever so slightly, 42.8%-42.5%, with 15% undecided.

Most other head-to-head polls of a general election matchup to date have shown Rogers as leading or tied with the Democrats, in part due to his better name recognition following his run in 2024. No Republican has won a US Senate race in Michigan, however, since 1994, when Spencer Abraham won a single term.

Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on X @tsspangler.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Senate poll shows McMorrow ahead, Stevens frontrunner status in doubt

Reporting by Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press

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