How third-party candidates could help Donald Trump win Michigan

Independent and third-party candidates played a key role in helping ex-President Donald Trump get elected in 2016. And they could do it again in this year’s presidential election. 

MICHIGAN—The last three presidential elections have been decided by single-digit percentage margins in Michigan, and this year’s race for the White House is also expected to be a close one, making every single vote cast a critically important one.

At least five candidates’ names will be listed on the November ballot this year, but most Michiganders will be deciding between President Joe Biden and ex-President Donald Trump. Polling shows other, third-party candidates have virtually no shot at winning this year.

But that doesn’t mean those candidates won’t play a significant role in shaping the election results and determining the future of the country.

Here’s the Deal:

Ex-President Donald Trump’s last election victory in Michigan was a tight race.

After all the votes were tallied, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton ended up losing to Trump by less than 11,000 votes in Michigan in 2016—collecting 47% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 47.3%. For context, that’s roughly the capacity of the main upper deck at Comerica Park.

Meanwhile, more than 275,000 Michiganders—or enough to fill Comerica’s lower bowl nearly a dozen times over—turned out to vote for third-party candidates like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. 

Had even a small fraction of those third-party voters instead decided to vote for Clinton in 2016, the results of the presidential election in Michigan may have been totally different—and Trump may have lost out on all 16 of Michigan’s Electoral College votes on his path to the presidency.

Instead, those votes helped ensure that Trump won the presidency in 2016, which ultimately paved the way for him to appoint US Supreme Court judges to overturn Roe v. Wade, as well as sign significant tax cuts into federal law for corporations and the nation’s wealthiest residents.

Third-party candidates also scored more votes than Trump’s margin of victory in Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida in 2016. And without those states, Trump would’ve lost.

So, with this year’s matchup between Biden and Trump expected to be decided by similarly tight margins, a significant number of votes for third-party candidates could (again) play a consequential role in swaying the vote in Trump’s favor in Michigan. 

Third-Party Voting in Michigan

Over the course of the last six presidential elections in Michigan, a third party candidate has never come close to scoring enough votes to win. Gary Johnson—who ran as a libertarian in 2016—was the most successful third-party candidate in recent history, with 3% of the vote.

In 2016, Jill Stein also won 1.1% of the vote in Michigan. But in all other presidential elections since 2000, third-party candidates haven’t even managed to crack the one-percent mark.

This year, the most prominent third-party candidate running for president is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—the son of former US Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, a conspiracy theorist, and an anti-vaxxer. 

In April, Kennedy made the ballot in Michigan as the presidential nominee for the Natural Law Party and will join other third-party candidates like Stein and Chase Oliver as they attempt to persuade Michigan voters to abandon their support for Democratic and Republican candidates.

Early polling shows that support for a third-party candidate (like in 2016) could threaten to siphon more support from the Biden-Harris campaign and again swing the election for Trump—including through so-called “protest votes” from dissatisfaction with both candidates.

During a recent speech, Trump himself also praised third-party candidates like Kennedy, Stein, and Cornel West for their potential to draw votes away from the Biden-Harris ticket in November.

“Cornel West, he’s one of my favorite candidates,” Trump said. “I like her also, Jill Stein, I like her very much. You know why? She takes 100 percent from (Democratic candidates). He takes 100 percent. Kennedy is probably 50/50, but he’s a fake. He’s a fake. He’s a total fake.”

What a second Trump term would mean for Michiganders

If Trump is elected in November—with or without the help of third party candidates—his agenda could ultimately have a huge impact on Michiganders. 

Trump and congressional Republicans have made clear they will consider repealing Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which established new incentives to help spur a clean energy jobs revolution, with Michigan at the forefront. 

A recent Climate Power report found that at least 58 new clean energy projects have been announced or moved forward in Michigan since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act.According to the new report, those new clean energy projects in Michigan have created or moved forward at least 21,490 new clean energy jobs.

The Inflation Reduction Act also lowered healthcare costs for hundreds of thousands of Michiganders, saving about 85% of Michiganders with Affordable Care Act coverage an average of about $414 on their monthly healthcare insurance premiums, officials estimate.

The law also included Medicare reforms that sharply lowered drug costs for many of the roughly 1.8 million Michigan seniors with Medicare Part D coverage and established a $35 monthly cap on insulin for Medicare recipients.

Trump has also expressed an openness to cutting both Medicare and Social Security, which the Biden-Harris administration has vowed to protect and taken steps to expand in recent years. 

A second Trump term could also threaten reproductive rights in Michigan. Since Roe’s repeal, Republican lawmakers have repeatedly tried to pass a nationwide abortion ban and restrict access to abortion. If Republicans take control of Congress and Trump is elected to another term, that legislation could find its way into law, overriding Michigan’s protections for abortion. 

Additionally, a group of Trump-aligned conservative organizations and activists have crafted an expansive blueprint (known as Project 2025) that lays out in detail how they intend to make abortion inaccessible without passing any new laws at all.

The theory: Trump could replace nonpolitical staff in government agencies with right-wing loyalists to erode abortion rights, including by hiring staff at the US Food and Drug Administration to reject medical science and reverse its approval of all abortion medication.

Project 2025 also reportedly features plans to cut taxes for corporations, eliminate a federally funded preschool program for low-income students, and begin mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, some of whom work in Michigan’s agricultural sector.

The Biden-Harris administration has warned the Project 2025 agenda would effectively “destroy America” and give Trump and Republican lawmakers “limitless power over our daily lives.”

READ MORE: He said what? 10 things to know about RFK Jr.

For the latest Michigan news, follow The ‘Gander on Twitter.

Follow Political Correspondent Kyle Kaminski here.