It won’t be long until Michigan residents endure chilly mornings, in fact, forecasters say the Great Lakes region may see its first frost as early as mid-September — and snow by November.
The Farmers’ Almanac released two forecast maps for the typical first snowfall and frost timeline for the US on Wednesday, Sept. 9.
The first frost map shows Michigan’s southern Lower Peninsula seeing frost as soon as early October. The prediction considers potential frost as the first time temperatures drop to 32 degrees. The rest of the Lower Peninsula and the entire Upper Peninsula are forecast for their first frost earlier, as soon as mid-September.
The first snowfall map suggests residents have more time to prepare for the change in season.
Michigan is projected to see its first measurable snowfall — at least 0.1 inch of accumulation — in November.
“For a large portion of the northern United States, October and November are the primary first-snow months. November is particularly common across the Great Lakes, Midwest and interior Northeast,” the Farmers’ Almanac said.
Michigan’s lake-effect snow could usher in snow sooner that the Almanac predicts.
“During autumn, lake water remains relatively warm. When much colder air pours across that water, it can pick up heat and moisture. Once that air reaches land, narrow but intense bands of lake-effect snow can develop,” the Farmers’ Almanac said.
Factors such as elevation, latitude, urban heat, the ocean’s temperature and climate patterns — like El Niño, which is expected to bring warmer and drier conditions to Michigan this winter — also determine the first snowfall windows.
“Early snow can occur weeks or even months before the winter solstice (Dec. 21, 2026), and an early snowfall can be followed by a lengthy spell of mild autumn weather,” the Farmers’ Almanac said.
Here’s more on the Farmers’ Almanac predictions for 2026-27 winter:
When could Michigan see its first snow? Farmers’ Almanac snowfall map
When will I see frost in Michigan?
How accurate is the Farmers’ Almanac?
Founded in 1818, the Farmers’ Almanac uses a combination of sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull and historical pattern weighting to build long-range forecasts. The publication said its has 80%-85% accuracy on its regional outlooks, however the weather forecasting company Climavision said studies show about 52% accurate.
When will Michigan see its first snow this year?
Here’s are average, earliest and latest snowfall dates for cities across Michigan, according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center:
Detroit
- Earliest: Oct. 12 (2006)
- Latest: Dec. 29 (2016)
- Average: Nov. 19
Ann Arbor
- Earliest: Oct. 12 (2006)
- Latest: March 11 (1882)
- Average: Nov. 8
Lansing
- Earliest: Oct. 12 (2006)
- Latest: Dec. 11 (1963)
- Average: Nov. 11
Grand Rapids
- Earliest: Oct. 7 (2000)
- Latest: Dec. 5 (1948)
- Average: Nov. 6
Battle Creek
- Earliest: Oct. 12 (2006)
- Latest: Dec. 18 (1998)
- Average: Nov. 10
Benton Harbor
- Earliest: Sept. 30 (1899)
- Latest: Jan. 1 (1942)
- Average: Nov. 20
Muskegon
- Earliest: Oct. 7 (1978)
- Latest: Dec. 24 (1918)
- Average: Nov. 13
Cheboygan
- Earliest: Sept. 20 (1956)
- Latest: Jan. 1 (1932)
- Average: Nov. 13
Northport
- Earliest: Sept. 18 (1992)
- Latest: Dec. 17 (1998)
- Average: Nov. 13
Maple City
- Earliest: Oct. 4 (2003)
- Latest: Nov. 30 (1963)
- Average: Nov. 4
Alpena
- Earliest: Sept. 24 (1928)
- Latest: Dec. 12 (1948)
- Average: Nov. 5
Onaway
- Earliest: July 4 (1901)
- Latest: Dec. 9 (1914)
- Average: Nov. 6
Sault Ste. Marie
- Earliest: Sept. 13 (1923)
- Latest: Nov. 25 (2024)
- Average: Oct. 24
Marquette
- Earliest: Sept. 22 (1989)
- Latest: Nov. 19 (2016)
- Average: Oct. 16
Ironwood
- Earliest: Oct. 21 (1913)
- Latest: Nov. 25 (1931)
- Average: Oct. 21
Ontonagon
- Earliest: Sept. 22 (1995)
- Latest: Nov. 26 (2001)
- Average: Oct. 30
Escanaba
- Earliest: Sept. 22 (1995)
- Latest: Nov. 26 (2001)
- Average: Oct. 30
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: When will it snow in Michigan? When you might need your shovel
Reporting by Sarah Moore, USA TODAY NETWORK / Lansing State Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
